European upstream M&A slowed sharply in Q1 2026, with just three transactions announced as the Middle East conflict and North Sea fiscal uncertainty weighed on deal appetite. The report tracks deals across Norway and the Netherlands, with activity centred on portfolio optimisation rather than large-scale consolidation. Key events include ORLEN’s entry into Afrodite, DNO’s asset swap with Equinor, Mazarine’s proposed acquisition of Gazprom’s Wintershall Noordzee stake, and the collapse of Shell and ExxonMobil’s planned SNS sale to Viaro Energy.

We assess how Brent price volatility above US$100/bbl is widening buyer-seller valuation gaps across the region. In the UK, no change to the EPL keeps tax-loss-driven transactions as the dominant deal strategy, while Norway remains constrained to swaps and infill acquisitions. The opportunity pool has grown to 276 asset interests with reserves of 1,320 MMboe, though the mix is increasingly tilted toward complex, hard-to-transact assets.

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