Upstream M&A activity in Sub-Saharan Africa slowed sharply in Q3 2025, with no new transactions announced after a busy first half. Despite the pause, the region saw notable developments, including the completion of Eni and Vitol’s $1.65 billion Baleine stake transfer and Tullow’s Kenya exit to Gulf Energy. In Nigeria, regulatory shifts highlighted an evolving offshore landscape as the NUPRC approved TotalEnergies’ OML 118 sale but withdrew consent for its SPDC portfolio divestment.

The regional outlook remains active yet selective. Brownfield opportunities now dominate the deal pipeline, accounting for two-thirds of total value, while greenfield interest narrows to frontier assets like Namibia. With disciplined capital and renewed IOC portfolio reshaping, the next M&A wave will likely centre on producing assets with strong cash flow potential.

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