Geopolitics Iran | From Ceasefire to Framework: What the US-Iran MoU Means for Oil Markets
June 23, 2026
Beyond a ceasefire, the US-Iran MoU is a framework for negotiating a broader political, security and economic settlement, and the events of the past week have started to give that framework institutional form. The immediate price effect has been a fall back to approximately US$80/bbl, roughly a third below its wartime peak. The geopolitical premium tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has mostly disappeared.
The relevant question is no longer whether that premium should fade. It is whether the MoU can be converted into a durable arrangement that restores physical flows, rebuilds confidence in maritime security, and lowers the probability of the next disruption.